England breathe a sigh of relief at World Cup 2014 qualifying draw | Paul Wilson

England manager Fabio Capello talks to the media after the preliminary draw of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. Photograph: Julian Finney - Fifa/FIFA via Getty Images

England, second last to be drawn, landed among familiar foes in a far from unfriendly World Cup 2014 qualifying group, narrowly avoiding the fate of being placed in a five-team group with France, which fell in turn to World Cup holders and current European champions Spain.

The draw in Rio de Janeiro was made in reverse order, with the top seeds allocated to their groups last, and England and Spain were the final two balls to be pulled out. England came out next to last, to be grouped with Montenegro, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova and San Marino, while to Spain fell the decidedly trickier task of negotiating a group comprising France, Belarus, Georgia and Finland.

While both Group H and Group I ought to be winnable for their respective top seeds, there is no doubt England will have been relieved to have avoided the final group.

Montenegro drew at Wembley in a Euro 2012 qualifier last October, and England face a return in Podgorica this autumn to determine which side qualifies automatically from Group G for next year's finals in Poland and Ukraine. Both of those host countries managed to end up in the same World Cup group before England joined them, and Fabio Capello's side encountered Ukraine in the last World Cup qualifying cycle, with Andriy Shevchenko's side successful in the most recent encounter, albeit after England had qualified. Poland have also crossed England's path on a regular basis in the past, though are not the force they once were in European football.

The other two opponents in the group will also be recalled with affection. Moldova was where Glenn Hoddle took charge for the first time in 1996 and where David Beckham made his competitive England debut, while San Marino will forever be remembered for the low comedy of England's visit with Graham Taylor in Bologna in 1993, complete with "Do I not like that" and "What sort of a thing is happening here?"

At least Capello will not have to worry about a repeat or a return to his native land. The Italian coach will depart after the European Championship next year, and a new man will be in charge by the time England embark on the qualification process for Brazil. Group H should not deter any potential candidates, far from it, though it is unlikely to set anyone's pulse racing either. Sven-Goran Eriksson suggested this weekend that Jose Mourinho would be the ideal contender to follow Capello, though it would be something of a surprise were the Portuguese to tear himself from the excitement of managing Real Madrid and trying to become the first coach in history to win European Cups with three different sides for a leisurely trek round the Balkans and central Europe.

Elsewhere in the draw, Scotland and Wales were drawn together in Group A, which is neither particularly glamorous nor particularly easy, with Croatia, Serbia and Belgium fighting (hopefully not literally) for the top spots and even the makeweights of Macedonia no pushovers. Northern Ireland face some long trips in Group F, with not only Russia but also Azerbaijan and Israel, with Portugal and Luxembourg at least a little closer to home. The Republic of Ireland avoided France, to everyone's relief, though drew Germany and Sweden, along with Austria, Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands in Group C. That is quite a tough group, though with Germany clear favourites to win the Republic have at least a chance of clinging to runners-up spot and a play-off place. The nine group winners qualify automatically, while the eight best runners-up play off to provide a European contingent of 13 for the finals.

Norway's charmed life continued with an astonishingly favourable draw in Group E, where the only real threats are Slovenia and Switzerland. Considered lucky to be seeded in the first place, especially at the expense of teams such as France and Russia, the Norwegians could easily end up qualifying for a tournament for the first time since Euro 2000. They are unlikely to be too worried by Albania, Iceland or Cyprus, and ought to be able to achieve one of the top two positions.

Greece, the other surprise seeds, also have little to complain about. They avoided the bigs guns of pot two, drawing Slovakia instead of France, Russia or Turkey, and should be able to progress from a group that also includes Bosnia?Herzegovina, Lithuania, Lativia and Liechtenstein.

That's how it appears from this distance, at any rate. By the time these qualifying matches begin to take place, just over a year from now, a European Championship will have been concluded and much will have changed. When the last draw was made, for the Euro 2012 qualifiers currently taking place, everyone said England had dropped lucky with an easy group.

That was before not just Montenegro but Switzerland came to Wembley and escaped with a point. England are still joint top of the group, on goal difference from Montenegro, but the game in Podgorica this October now looms even larger than before. If England win, they will qualify and the future will look secure. Lose, and the next England manager will know he has to negotiate the same opponents. It was exactly the situation that greeted Capello when he took over from Steve McClaren and then faced Croatia. He dealt with it remarkably well, and if he can do the same in Montenegro all should be well. Should he fail, the main problem for the next man will be taking over a team whose nemesis is no longer Germany, or even Croatia, but a team that have yet to make their first appearance in a World Cup tournament.

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Arsène Wenger must stick to his guns to keep up with the continent | Paul Wilson

Gael Clichy, pictured hurdling a tackle from Roma's Marco Motta, is said to be surprised by the intensity of training at his new club Manchester City because 'at Arsenal they don't tackle too much in training'. Photograph: Tom Jenkins

Of all the daft stories swirling around Manchester City in the last few days, beginning with the hilarious insult to Michel Platini's intelligence that saw the club bank ?400m in naming rights for a stadium they do not even own and probably not ending with the emergence of Corinthians' chairman as an unlikely spokesman for alleged Italian interest in Carlos Tevez, easily the most entertaining was the revelation by James Milner that Gael Clichy has been shocked by the toughness and intensity of training sessions at his new club.

"Gael hasn't been here too long but he's seen a few tackles fly in," Milner said. "He's surprised because at Arsenal they don't tackle too much in training. We train as we play."

It does not necessarily follow that Arsenal play as they train, though that would explain a lot about what went wrong last season, and neither, sadly, can it be true that City kick lumps out of each other in training because competition for first-team places is now so fierce it pays to be the last man standing. One could readily imagine such a situation developing at City, where Roberto Mancini has already had to break up a few playground fights, but the manager's policy is to laugh at the absurdity of it all and continue to bring in mature, responsible characters such as Mario Balotelli. Arsene Wenger, on the other hand, is hardly bringing in anyone apart from the weirdly coiffured Gervinho, yet somehow continues to believe it is Arsenal's destiny to win the title.

"We were very, very close last season," Wenger argues. "We are a young team and we can only get better. It demands the strength of character that champions have. That's what we want to show."

Yes, but strength of character is precisely what Arsenal do not possess, otherwise they might now be touring Asia as reigning English champions. While one can hardly blame Wenger for talking up his side's chances, several of his players appear to have had enough of fine words and lofty intentions and are threatening to jump ship to teams with more realistic hopes of success. Clichy is perhaps not a devastating loss but, as Wenger conceded earlier in the week, losing Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri as well would make it hard for Arsenal to persuade anyone else to join them. Even if it does not come to that, Fabregas has not fully resolved the fitness issues that kept him out of key games last season and in all likelihood if Nasri stays, it will only be for one more year.

So unless Wenger swallows his pride and reaches for the chequebook, Arsenal could be in a bit of a mess. They were not actually all that close last season because they managed to finish fourth in a three-horse race. Young teams often get worse if the best players leave and strength of character is not something that can be easily or quickly acquired. Yet though Gooners everywhere are exhorting Wenger to spend, it is not difficult to understand his reluctance. Arsenal will never be able to spend like Chelsea and Manchester City can spend, and though Wenger has had notable successes in the transfer market his best teams have been competitive through cleverness on the pitch rather than financial clout from the boardroom.

In that sense, and this is not claimed as an exclusive, Arsenal greatly resemble Barcelona, and it seems odd that just as the Spanish model has achieved world-conquering perfection the original English version is running out of steam. How many times, over the years, has Wenger complained bitterly that Blackburn or Bolton or Stoke have been unduly physical and that his players deserved more protection from the referee? English officials may still strike him as over-tolerant but Barcelona's rise to prominence has been aided by Champions League referees taking a dim view of almost any sort of contact. Small wonder that Arsenal, for all their domestic travails, came closer than anyone to getting the better of Barcelona last season. If they could play their Premier League football under Champions League conditions they would surely not have waited six years for a trophy, and nor would Wenger be talking about beefing up his side with taller players and a bit more steel.

In many ways it would be sad to see Wenger concede defeat and become more English. His work at Arsenal was recognised long ago by headhunters at Barcelona and Real Madrid, and if the Spanish style of play continues to dominate European football then it follows that Arsenal, rather than either of the Manchester teams or Chelsea, have the best chance of Champions League success.

Yet first they have to qualify for the competition and, with Liverpool and possibly Spurs on the rise again, they must get to grips with the physicality of the Premier League and develop a winning mentality that can survive determined assaults from opponents. They do not need to start kicking each other in training – it is hard to imagine Barcelona doing that and only an English player would brag about it – but they do need to recognise that England and Europe are pulling apart.

As Manchester United discovered at Wembley in May, one approach no longer covers both bases. Wenger undoubtedly needs reinforcements yet, looked at objectively, his is the more straightforward task. It ought to be easier for Arsenal to catch up with United than for United to catch up with Barcelona. Wenger should resist radical change, he was on the right path all along. While manning-up would be a good idea, the Gunners mostly need to stick to their shooting implements.

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