The three-times Tour de France winner Alberto Contador adjusts his earpiece before the start of the 13th stage on Friday. Photograph: Christophe Ena/APThe history of the Tour de France is written in individual acts of courage, but the chances of this year's edition earning a place among the legendary races appeared to recede on Thursday when the ante-post favourite faltered and the pretenders declined to take the risks involved in seizing the initiative. The contest might now be a game of chess all the way to the Champs-Elysees, or at least to the 43km time trial in Grenoble a week Saturday, at which small margins could be reversed.
What the race needs is a solo exploit in the grand style, and an opportunity offered itself on the climb up to Luz Ardiden when Alberto Contador, the three-times champion, proved unable to match the acceleration of others and was left counting the precious seconds lost to Frank and Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans and Ivan Basso, his principal rivals.
Instead, the contenders behaved more like accountants than the heirs of Fausto Coppi and Charly Gaul, spending the last few minutes of the stage feinting and bluffing until Frank Schleck finally drew away to finish third. Even the Luxembourg rider's attack, however, was not the decisive blow that might have been attempted had Contador's weakness been exposed earlier in the day.
"I think a lot of people were surprised to see Alberto lose time on the favourites," said Johan Bruyneel, Contador's sporting director when the Spaniard won his second tour after repelling the challenge of his own team-mate, Lance Armstrong. "Since he rides for a different team now, it's hard for me to know the issues, but I do know that it's not very Alberto-like to lose time on a summit finish. I was actually expecting an attack from him, but it never came."
Instead the Spaniard struggled across the line in Luz Ardiden 43 seconds behind the winner, the Olympic champion Sammy Sanchez, rising out of the saddle to turn the pedals as his rivals speeded up but showing none of the suppleness that is his trademark. Tentative sighs of relief were heard from those who believe his presence casts a pall over the race, given that the outcome of his positive test for clenbuterol during last year's race will not be decided until next month.
What cycling does not need is another tainted victory in its showpiece event, and the relief was provoked by the indication that Contador might just have been showing early signs of riding himself out of contention. There was scepticism when the champion of 2007, 2009 and 2010 declared that he is feeling better as the race goes on.
"It was finally a good day for me," he said. "My knee hurt after the Tourmalet and I was feeling very rough. I couldn't do anything more. Andy and Frank Schleck have improved their chances of winning, Evans and Basso are stronger, and I have to race intelligently. It could have been worse and I have to see what happens. Overall, I'm pleased."
The Schlecks had sent out their principal lieutenants in the Leopard Trek team – Fabian Cancellara, Stuart O'Grady and Jens Voigt – to set an attritional pace on the Tourmalet, getting rid of such figures as Tony Martin and Andreas Kloden in the process, although none of the major threats.
On the final climb, Contador watched the brothers confer. "I knew they were going to play their card. Frank attacked because no doubt he felt strong. I preferred to be prudent. At the end, when the others accelerated, I couldn't go with them. My legs didn't feel good and my pedalling wasn't at its best. Perhaps that's partly because I chose a gear that was too big at the start of the climb."
There are three reasons for believing that the Spaniard may be telling the truth when he claims that he is still in with a chance. The first is that he may still be replenishing the stores of energy depleted by his victory in a very demanding Giro d'Italia in May. The second is that his shoulder and knee are still sore from falls in the Tour's opening stages. And the third is that although the race is now more than halfway to Paris, the battle has barely begun.
For a handful of minutes on Thursday, on the last ramps up to the ski station at the end of a six-hour stage, the favourites briefly emerged into the light but without leaving a clear indication of the ultimate destiny of the 2011 yellow jersey.
It may be that the 31-year-old Frank Schleck, who crashed out of last year's race, is stronger this time around than his 26-year-old brother, the runner-up to Contador for the past two years, but both of them will need to establish an advantage before the penultimate day's time trial, a discipline in which neither excels.
The 33-year-old Basso went up most of Thursday's climbs seeming to breathe with the remarkable ease he showed in his victory in the Giro five years ago, a feat subsequently clouded by his doping suspension, but he looked less comfortable at the finish.
The new favourite is Evans, at 34 the oldest of the contenders, a much less erratic performer since his victory in the 2009 world championship road race in Mendrisio. Second overall in the Tour in 2007 and 2008, and the holder of the yellow jersey for one day before crashing out last year, the BMC leader now has a more solid group of riders around him, guided by a shrewd and sympathetic team boss in Jim Ochowicz.
But good judges counsel against writing off Contador's chances. A rider's form can go up as well as down over the three weeks of a grand tour, and while the Schlecks are playing their hand, the Spaniard might be keeping his cards close to his chest. The perception of weakness might even be in his interests.
Nevertheless the weaknesses are there, as Bruyneel noted. "Is it to do with the composition of the team? Is Alberto still feeling the effects of a very tough Giro? Is his knee limiting him? Is there the mental pressure of not knowing his future? Or something else? Most likely, it's a combination. If it were any other rider, I would probably say that to win the Tour is no longer within reach. But knowing Alberto's physical capabilities and mental outlook, I would not be totally surprised to see him win the trophy in Paris. There's still a lot of racing left."
The rest of us will be satisfied as long as it really is racing, and not just an extended exercise in phoney initiatives and hidden intentions with a time trial at the end. Mountain-top finishes on the Plateau de Beille on Saturday, the Col du Galibier next Thursday and the Alpe d'Huez on Friday provide the perfect opportunities for an explosive effort by a rider ambitious to join the immortals and not content to ride into history via a form of two-wheeled book-keeping.
Which is, after all, how Contador achieved his third victory 12 months ago, without winning a stage. Such a thing is bound to happen every so often, usually to no one's discredit. But not, please, this year.
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